Here are the top cardinals who could replace Pope Francis after the Conclave

The next pontiff could come from Africa, Italy, or Sri Lanka — possibly even America — but it’s likely that whoever is elected to follow Pope Francis, who died Monday at age 88, will nudge the Catholic Church back to the ideological center, experts said.

During Francis’ 12-year reign leading the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics, the late pope’s support for LGBTQ Catholics and suppression of the traditional Latin Mass were among moves that rankled conservatives in the church.

Now, “whoever is elected will be of a centrally conservative disposition; after 12 years of Pope Francis ‘stirring things up,’” said Serenhedd James, editor of Britain’s Catholic Herald magazine.

“I think the cardinals will want someone who will take a different, calmer approach.”

According to the Rev. Patrick Mary Briscoe, editor of Our Sunday Visitor magazine, the next pope will bring “a renewed clarity of doctrine” to the church and “focused more internally” on its governance.

Francis changed College of Cardinals

Within 20 days of the pope’s death, a conclave consisting of 120 cardinals out of the 138 “princes of the church” who are under age 80 and can vote will gather at the Vatican to pick his replacement.

Four daily ballots will be held until a successor is picked. After 30 ballots, the top two candidates will be the only ones allowed; whoever gets a two-thirds majority will become the next pope.

Briscoe said Francis “completely reshaped the makeup” of the College of Cardinals, the newer members of which were “extremely familiar with each other.”

The late pontiff extended the tenure of Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, 91, as “dean” of the college, and Briscoe said he might have a “behind-the-scenes influence” on the proceedings, given his knowledge of the other cardinals, old and new.

Here's how Pope Francis' successor will be chosen:

Some of the top candidates, ranked by Italian Vatican watcher Gaetano Masciullo and Vaticanists Edward Pentin and Diane Montagna of the College of Cardinals Report website, range from an advocate of “neo-modernist” theological positions to more conservative leaders.

They have ranked the candidates on the College of Cardinals Report. Among those deemed most likely to be elected are these six men:

Cardinal Luis Tagle, 67

Tagle, from the Philippines, is said to be a protégé of Francis, but may have lost favor after the discovery of alleged “shortcomings” when he headed Vatican charity Caritas International. Masciullo wrote that Tagle “has expressed very ‘open’ opinions on issues such as Communion for non-sacramentally married couples and homosexuality, suggesting that universal moral principles may ‘not apply in all situations.’”

Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70

The Vatican’s Secretary of State Parolin, who is Italian, has some conservative positions, but also backed collaboration between the church and Communist China. He’s rated as having a “high chance” of being elected because of his global diplomatic experience.

When Pope Francis became pontiff: A timeline of his religious journey and career

Dec. 17, 1936: Jorge Mario Bergoglio is born in Buenos Aires, Argentina, the eldest of five children to Mario Jose Bergoglio, an accountant from Italy, and Regina María Sívori, the daughter of Italian immigrants.
Dec. 13, 1969: Ordained a priest with the Jesuit religious order, which he would lead as Argentina provincial superior during the country’s murderous dictatorship that began in the 1970s.
May 20, 1992: Named auxiliary bishop of Buenos Aires and in 1998 succeeds Cardinal Antonio Quarracino as archbishop of the Argentine capital.
Feb. 21, 2001: Elevated to cardinal by Pope John Paul II.
March 13, 2013: Elected 266th pope, the first from the Americas, the first Jesuit and the first to take the name Francis, after St. Francis of Assisi.

Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline, 66

Aveline, from France, is reportedly Francis’ “favorite” cardinal to succeed him.

He is scholarly and affable, observers say. Masciullo called him a “dangerous contender” for the papacy. He said Aveline “is particularly appreciated” in left-wing ecclesiastical and political camps, and supports “strong decentralization” for the church.

Cardinal Willem Jacobus Eijk, 71

A physician and a theologian, Eijk adheres to Catholic doctrine even when it is unpopular.

He’s an accomplished administrator and opposes blessings for same-sex couples and “gender therapy.”

The Dutch prelate also does not back the ordination of women, a stance that would appeal to conservative elements.

Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith, 77

Ranjith is archbishop of Colombo, Sri Lanka. His election would elevate an Asian to the papacy and install a man aligned with both the late Pope Benedict XVI and Francis’ concern for the poor and the environment.

Masciullo said some view Ranjith “as perfectly aligned with Benedict XVI.” Another plus: He hails from South Asia, where Catholicism is experiencing tremendous growth.

Cardinal Robert Sarah, 79

Traditional and orthodox, Sarah is a former Vatican official from Guinea who has been publicly critical of restrictions on the traditional Latin Mass and the authorization of blessings for same-sex couples.

Those statements have made him an outspoken critic of Pope Francis, which endeared him to conservatives. He could be the first African pope since the fifth century.

Will next pope reverse Francis’s course?

It remains to be seen whether a new pope would reverse some of Francis’s more controversial positions.

“Pope Francis has appointed the majority of the cardinals in the College of Cardinals,” noted the Rev. James Martin, a Jesuit priest in Manhattan and editor at large of America magazine. “So I think it’s unlikely that you get someone who is dramatically opposed to his way of being the pope.

“But you may get someone who’s not as interested in being quite so revolutionary.”

The priest said it’s possible “someone who’s a bit more of a caretaker” would be the conclave’s choice.

“It might be difficult for the next pope to go back on what Francis had decided, but you never know. I mean, what can be done can be undone,” Martin said.

Who can be the next pope?

Technically, any baptized male Catholic can be elected to serve as pope. Still, an unordained person would have to be ordained and elevated to the position of bishop before their election could take effect, according to canon law expert Edward Peters, writing at the EWTN.com website.

But Kean University history professor Christopher Bellitto says the “odds of someone other than a cardinal being elected … are lower than a snowball’s chance in hell.”

He said the last time the Vatican “did that was in 1378 and that started the great western schism when we had two and then three popes until 1417.”

Earlier, in 1294, Bellitto said “they got Celestine V, who was the pope who resigned and Dante put at the doorway of hell” in the Italian poet’s classic “Inferno.”